Dating by Month-Lengths Revisited

Abstract

The chronological implications of the month-length evidence are re-examined on the basis
of additional data, and newer astronomical theories and insights about the clock-time
correction. The month-length evidence available by 2013 is internally consistent, and it
confirms the former conclusions of 1982, although with slightly lowered confidence. It favors
the High and disfavors the Middle chronologies with confidence levels between 95%
and 99%. A Bayesian argument intimates that the High chronology (Ammisaduqa year 1 =
1702 BC) is roughly 25 times more probable than each of the other three main chronologies
(1646, 1638, or 1582 BC). Independently, also the Ur III evidence points toward a High
chronology (Amar-Sin year 1 = 2094 BC).

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